Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Premiership Survival Strategy

Warning. Blokey, stato-like footie post follows:

I like this strategy. It appeals to my sense of planning which means that you can reinterpret earlier achievements in the light of later developments. So if West Brom lose at home to Wigan (as we did) in an early match it looks like a disaster since they were recently promoted and would be expected to finish in the bottom three or four. But their form and results now show that they are a top ten side and the score doesn't look so bad - one point dropped not three.

To avoid relegation
Take 4 points off the other 9 teams who will eventually finish in the bottom half of the table by winning at home and drawing away.
Take 6 points off the next 6 teams by drawing at home.
TOTAL = 42

To finish comfortably mid table.
Take 4 points off the 10 teams who will eventually finish in the bottom half of the table by winning at home and drawing away.
Take 3 points off the next 6 teams by winning at home.
TOTAL = 58

To get into Europe or possibly scrape fourth Champions League spot
Take 6 points off the clubs who will be relegated
Take 4 points off the next 7 teams by winning at home and drawing away
Take 3 points off the next 6 teams
Scrape 3 points from somewhere against the other top 4 teams
TOTAL = 67

To win the League
Take 6 points off the bottom 10 teams
Take 4 points off the next 6 teams by winning at home and drawing away
Take 6 points off other 3 top 4 teams by drawing all the games
TOTAL = 90

Currently West Brom are 6 points behind schedule and heading for 36 points; 2 more than last season's escape act gave us but unlikely to be enough this time round.

3 comments:

Andy said...

Nice strategy!

Personally I think 36 will be tight this year - it may even go to the hallowed 40 point mark.

Personally, with Sunderland as good as down, it's between yourselves, us (Pompey), Brum and Fulham for the final two spots - and you really feel that everyone will pick up *some* points in the second half of the season. A thrilling finale awaits.

And remember, the team that is 4th bottom on Christmas day has been relegated in 4 of the last 5 seasons :)

Andy

Martin said...

you know, as a general non-football-appreciator, I actually think these stats make it more interesting. Still, will need more than that to convince me.

Mark said...

Unfortunatley stats are stats and football is football... Last wed AFC Telford played Gresley at Telford... Gresley completely outplayed Telford for the whole game... AFCTU were atrocious... it was 1:2 going into added time... with it neign a cold wet night and a mickey mouse cup game... most Telford fans were happy to leave it there... but Telford somehow managed to equalise completely against the run of play... meaning Extra Time (aaaagh) only for Telford to hoof the ball into the Gresley Box... the ball went out of play and the ref awarded a goal kick... But! Mr Lino was flagging... ref went over.... PENALTY... for what, no one had a clue! Anyway... Telford Score and the ref blows for the end of the Game... both teams left the pitch laughing! Football!