Things Can Only Get 24

The longest 45 minutes of my life was in 2015, interviewing a UKIP candidate to be MP for North Somerset, in front of an audience. Her very existence meant we could not have a panel interview as Dr Liam Fox would not sit on a panel with her. So we agreed that, on two successive Sunday afternoons, I would put questions, submitted by the audience, to each of the four candidates in turn.

Mrs UKIP was third of four. She owned up to me before the event, that she knew nothing. She wasn’t far wrong. There were no audience questions apart from one which was a set-up for her only rehearsed answer. Question after question I invented about local issues and national issues were greeted with platitudes or silence. By the end, her front-row fan-club desperately whispering answers to her, we had established that she thought our payments to the EU could be better used and she had told me how her party would use them several times over.

I have been asked to be a ‘paper candidate’ myself, once, for the SDP in Nottingham Council elections mid 1980s. I knew enough to say no. But soon it looks like Reform will be getting between 4 and 6 million votes for candidates who have no clue about anything. And you can’t get a political brain overnight.

I still have nightmares about that 45 minutes in Nailsea Methodist Church. The interview that followed with Dr Smooth was a joy by comparison. It wasn’t my job to probe but to read out audience questions and refer the answer to them. Afterwards he was kind enough to tell me I wasn’t as difficult as Jeremy Paxman. It took three months to get the picture of me shaking hands with him off his web-site. He’s now Sir Liam for services to, presumably, being sacked a lot. Hope he loses, but not to Reform. If we had transferable votes he wouldn’t be last.

Things Can Only Get 23

There are several botanical gardens in Funchal. The best one is Monte Palace Tropical Garden and is most fun if accessed by the cable car. There is a second, shorter cable car journey from there to the simpler Municipal Gardens. The funny thing is that the main cable car ticket office will admit nothing of the existence of the second one. You cannot buy a discounted ticket for both.

I thought about this as I wondered where my daily political writing was going to go today. Once a landslide victory has been won by one party it is tempting to completely ignore the existence of the other main party. It might take them two or three electoral cycles to claw their way back so why bother?

But here’s a thing. We will probably have a centre-left government. A good question would be to look at issues which can be taken out of party politics. What things do we not need to argue about? Is there a way of cleaning up rivers and beaches, for instance, to which no one object? What did the centre-right want to be doing?

I know the outgoing government (surely they’re toast now?) had little to commend them. So it’s a good time to establish a principle. The new government should thank the old government for its service and see if there is anything they were trying to do which can still be delivered. Otherwise we will never develop a long-term vision about anything.

Both gardens and both cable cars and back make a fine day trip. And once you´ve bought a ticket you wont change your mind, easily.

Things Can Only Get 22

It felt a bit out of place but Radiohead’s ‘No Surprises’ was playing in the hotel restaurant at lunchtime. Perhaps it was in homage to the Labour Manifesto. This was published today and is, apparently, largely in line with what candidates have been saying.

Question: No rabbits out of a hat?
Answer: I want to be Prime Minister not a circus master

Nicely done.

All governments end up doing things that are not in their manifestos because circumstances dear people, circumstances. But greater, and more appropriate, criticism is saved for the things left undone after five years that they ought to have done because they said they would.

Here are some things that would make people notice change:

Move Downing Street offices to a place that works

Don’t make MPs do the walk of shame to find out their new job. Phone them

Re-use a lectern from the stores

Shoot (and I realise this will be a bit Marmitey) Larry

Things Can Only Get 21

Redfield and Wilton have released some polling figures based on where people primarily get their news. I’ll let you do the analysis:

Guardian - Labour lead by 39%
Channel 4 - Labour lead by 39%
Mirror - Labour lead by 38%
Observer - Labour lead by 37%
Independent - Labour lead by 34%
ITV - Labour lead by 26%
Channel 5 - Labour lead by 25%
Al Jazeera - Labour lead by 24%
Sky - Labour lead by 24%
BBC - Labour lead by 23%
Sun - Labour lead by 21%
Financial Times - Labour lead by 19%
Times - Labour lead by 18%
Express - Labour lead by 15%
Mail - Labour lead by 12%
Telegraph - Labour lead by 10%

GB News - Reform lead by 44%

Things Can Only Get 20

Picking up from yesterday on immigration I see the far right made a bit of progress in the EU elections in France and Macron called the bluff. Strange that they now have so many members of a Parliament they don’t want to exist.

A quick observation of Europe (try The New European for well-written insights) shows that most of those countries that flirt with the far-right and give them power find that the bubble bursts pretty quickly.

Populism has no route to peaceful coexistence with neighbours. It has to be borders and monocultures. Tim Marshall’s ‘Prisoners of Geography’ explains clearly why an area of land with many mountains and rivers (such as Europe) will tend to evolve with many disparate tribes. Conquering Empires don’t bring lasting peace. Trade and political compromise do.

If, as we expect, the UK moves back into the centre, or maybe centre-left, after this election the cause of peace in Europe will be advanced. But in the absence of a centre-right the next ten years might be dangerous.

Things Can Only Get 19

I don’t know if you’ve seen a couple of videos that are doing the rounds. In one, James Acaster talks to a man in a deserted Kettering town centre. The guy explains that our country is full. Too full. And the people who are making it full are from abroad. It’s sadfunny.

In another a Reform candidate explains how he became convinced of the need to step up when he travelled through an airport and saw how many people were coming in. He holds his conviction as the straight-faced questioner suggests that this is the sort of thing that happens at airports.

Many of you will find this amusing but the views are typical of those held by the far right. A very thin basis in fact is fanned into flames by racism and stupidity. In such an environment it is almost impossible to have a sensible conversation about immigration.

But what would be a sensible population for the UK? How should it be made up? Do we want to import people to do the jobs we don’t want to do? (No.) Or are we happy to pay more for cleaners, carers and fruit pickers? (Again, no.) Impasse.

Things Can Only Get 18

Yesterday my home village had a fête. There were many lovely feedback comments on the village Facebook page and one person who complained that it wasn’t made clear enough that you had to buy pink tickets on the way in to spend on the stalls and they won’t be coming next year.

I once spoke warmly about a new restaurant I had discovered and some folks I knew said they would never go there again because they had been once and waited ages for coffee.

I was chatting to an intelligent man on a walk just before the 2015 General Election. We got round to the question of voting and he told me clearly that he was voting Conservative, always did, and would not discuss it.

What is it that has fixed your mind on the quality of an event or place?

What is it that has fixed your mind on how you vote, the character of a leader, the vision of a party? Would you forgive a mistake, given time? It feels like quite a few camels’ backs have been broken this last couple of years but 20% of voters would stick rather than twist. And many won’t discuss it. You?

Things Can Only Get 17

As a minor league statto I love opinion polls. For the last few months nothing either main party has done has made any difference. Labour are 18-22 points ahead. People are fed up with the present government and want a change.

I have only ever been polled once—it was about whether Leamington Spa needed another supermarket so not exactly edgy.

It is remarkable how pollsters use the wisdom of crowds. Look at the bottom of any current poll and you will find the best ones, the most reliable ones, ask about 2000 people the same questions. As long as those asked are a good range of age, gender, social background and geography you can extrapolate an election result. The BBC poll revealed at 10.00 p.m. on election night is the result of asking ten times more people how they voted. It is usually pretty accurate.

Sir John Curtice is the political science academic who, with great energy for a 70 year old, explains what the figures mean and if there is any flexibility possible in interpreting them.

The main unfairness polls always show up is how 10% of the votes for a minor party can give them maybe one seat if they are lucky (Reform, Green), whereas every 10% the main parties get can convert to 75-100 seats. There is no point in getting 10% in every seat. Better to get 40% in a few.

This is a strong argument for a fairer voting system.

Things Can Only Get 16

This totally fictitious conversation never took place because well, lawyers


SPAD: Prime Minister we have a problem
PM: We have many
SPAD: This is a very specific and new one
PM: Tell me more
SPAD: Well you know that promise you made not to resign if you lost the election?
PM: I do
SPAD: And you know you have that California job offer?
PM: Indeed
SPAD: Well they’re contradictory
PM: You can’t mean we’re going to win?
SPAD: Of course not Prime Minister, of course not, but you might not lose Richmond
PM: That’s awkward. What should I do?
SPAD: How about if you insulted a very key set of Tory voters but made it look like an accident?
PM: So that we lost a little bit worse? That sounds risky. Can I think about it?
SPAD: How about we have another chat on the journey back from the D.Day commemoration tomorrow

PM: Tomorrow?

Things Can Only Get 15

False memory syndrome is a thing. So many of us get convinced that two things are related when they are not. As an example, many people think that Neil Kinnock lost the 1992 General Election when he fell in the sea at Blackpool. But that incident happened some years earlier at a Labour Party Conference.

When voting you will call to mind incidents from the past that have fixed your view of individuals and parties. But you may be conflating unrelated things. You may not have noticed that the person or party has changed. Or you may have chosen not to notice and all political opinions have to kneel at the seat of your prejudices.

A man was convinced he was dead. He could not be persuaded that his current life was real. After hours of debate and argument a conclusion was reached that was satisfactory to him and his doubters. Dead men don't bleed. He agreed to endure a pinprick to the thumb to conclude the matters. He was pricked. He bled.

'Well blow me down' he said (it was a Victorian joke) 'Dead men do bleed after all.'

You may not have noticed that the person or party has changed. Or you may have chosen not to notice and all political opinions have to kneel at the seat of your prejudices.

Things Can Only Get 14

Farage is trying to ride a wave of perceived popularity (well done BBC). Although surfers face all sorts of bio-hazards he is a very clever political operative. The chummy, bloke-propping-up-the-bar bonhomie deflects criticism the same way Boris Johnson's cheery promises and ruffled hair led people to like him. Obviously in Johnson's case he got wiped out and rag-dolled. Farage has only recently decided to stand on his board again after several previous attempts. Still a kook.

I suspect Farage and Clacton do go together. If he catches a wave this time politics will get interesting for the Tories. At some point he will have to tell us some policy details and his plans for, inter alia, cleaning up the beaches.

This extended surfing metaphor was brought to you by Lapoint's Dictionary of Surfer Slang. Thanks lads. Stoked.

Things Can Only Get 13

Friend of mine used to work at Birmingham's Industrial Research Laboratories. Much of his work involved carrying weights around to employ in destruct tests leaving him with great upper body strength and a fine physique. I recall that the ceiling light fixings in Aston Hall could carry eight times the weight of the chandeliers or, as he put it, 'A bloke could safely hang from them'. Funny but whenever I recall this story I think of Del Boy and Rodney.

If you asked Bob (for that is still his name) what he did for a living he proudly said 'I break things'.

Currently, around the world, democracy is being subjected to many destruct tests. It is proving pretty sturdy. The danger is always that a democratically elected dictator can, once in office, remove all the protections that would enable them to be ejected. Poland flirted with populism and returned. Turkey is looking as if it has been taken as far as it will go. Hungary is still a problem. Countries that border Russia do OK as long as they elect pro-Russian leaders. The USA is a basket case but currently the law is stopping former President Trump from getting to a place where he can become king of the castle and raise the drawbridge.

'Be you never so high, the law is above you' (said Thomas Fuller 1732). How are we doing? Well there's only respect for judges here up to a point. The tabloid press have called the appeal court judges 'enemies of the state' on a front page. The expressions 'liberal left lawyers' and the 'woke judiciary' are bandied around. And a massive misuse of law-making was recently employed to make it the law that Rwanda is safe, which is a dangerous precedent.

There are quite a few people swinging from the chandeliers of democracy but it is still taking the weight and giving off light.

Things Can Only Get 12

In 2010 David Cameron tried to demonstrate his energy by staying up all night and campaigning the night before the election. My worry was that a 24 hour period where a cabinet is to be appointed is not done best on no sleep. The gods intervened and gave him 72 hours to negotiate his ill-fated coalition with the Clegg version of Liberal Democracy.

Margaret Thatcher's life was saved in Brighton because she had been persuaded to look at one more item in her red box before turning in, long after midnight.

Currently in the USA we have two older candidates for the presidency who have problems with wakefulness. One also has a problem with wokefulness but that's another story.

I used to have a long working day and had to be careful not to vote for things at late night meetings just to get home in time to talk to my wife before she turned in. I read somewhere that one of the tactics of the extreme left who took over various city councils in the 1970s and 80s was to keep meetings going late into the night until everyone was too tired to argue. That's not illegal but tends to restrict those willing to serve.

Today's question. Is it possible that we might find a realistic pattern of working for someone charged with making the bigger decisions about our country's life?

Things Can Only Get 11

If you go to a pantomime in this country you will have expectations of seeing a certain amount of set-pieces. 'Oh no we won't' cry the people and 'he's behind you'. It must be as strange to outsiders as, say, Japanese kabuki theatre was to me on the one occasion I experienced it.

We could at this stage bring out an election-campaign bingo card:

• Baby kissed
• Audience of factory hands
• Unveiling slogan
• Launching manifesto
• Leaders' TV debate

You get the idea. Yesterday, Sir Keir launched the Angela Rayner 'Change' battlebus and Rishi the 'Clear plan, bold action, secure future' one which he will be flying above in his helicopter. Rishi's slogan is less memorable but has the advantage that swapping the adjectives makes very little difference. The LibDems bus has been on the road for a while now but it did prompt Sir Keir to do the best joke, 'You wait ages for a battlebus and then three come along at once.'

It prompted me to wonder if the six week campaign is just a pantomime full of expected set-pieces and whether there is another way.

Why not stop campaigning a full 24 hours before the polls open and give the country a day off politics?

Why do we count through the night? Would getting the exit poll at 10.00p.m. followed by the real results throughout the next day be so bad? get some rest before forming a government. Maybe, you know, think a bit first.

Things Can Only Get 10

A quote and then lots of questions tonight:

'Don't obsess over policy. Most governments are remembered for things which weren't in their manifesto, when the gov was responding to events. At that stage character and values count for far more.'
Dr Seth Thévoz (@SAThevoz) on X/Twitter

It reminded me of the days in my working life when, from time to time, I found myself interviewing people. As techniques improved we were always short-listing against criteria and assessing against a chart of some sort but we had been looking for character. As Dr Seth says, that mostly comes to the fore when you have something to do that is not in your job description. If all these candidates had ticked the boxes that suggested they were qualified for the job which one was most likely to do the right thing if the church or office caught fire? Who could make me laugh at myself? Who would see coffee making as beneath them? Who would talk too much in response to the question 'Did you have good journey?'

What happened in the last 14 years that wasn't in a manifesto?

• Brexit
• Covid 19
• War in Ukraine
• Death of the Queen

What do you think of the character that was shown by the people responding to these events? And how far off course do you think they were thrown, if at all?

Things Can Only Get 9

We interrupt this broadcast to bring news from overseas. As one social media commentator put it 'The average number of felonies committed by each US President has gone up from zero to 0.7.' Clever.

Very few US voters will allow this decision to change their minds. Fair enough. I find it harder to understand the ones who will - the people who stuck by Trump through racism, sexism, lies, abuse, rape and incitement to riot but found business fraud the last straw.

We may well laugh but the experience of the polls in the UK this week is that nothing seems to be changing them either. The people are not convinced about what they want. Most seem accepting that the next few years will be dreadful. The stuck polls suggest people are only certain about what they don't want.

To link these two thoughts we have this. In leaving the EU we became very reliant on our relationship with the USA. Trump's conviction makes the total breakdown of US democracy a possibility. In a world where China and Russia are stretching their world-domination muscles we will need some friends. We will certainly need a leader who the EU leadership trust.

In a little local difficulty for Labour it feels as if The Diane Abbott issue was allowed to get into too many news cycles. I'm not entirely clear whether, under Labour Party rules, Keir Starmer had the authority to make a decision. He must have had some input but the decision was needed quicker.

By the way, does anyone else think Dianne Abbott looked unwell? I know she had been through a difficult time but I thought she sounded faltering and noticed she seemed to hold the microphone with a tremor.

Things Can Only Get 8

Sometimes politics looks as if it is about to get a great reset and doesn't. 1945 was a reset. As was 1979. 1997 looks as if it was, given the landslide, but there was no momentous change of tack. I will say, until I'm blue in the face, that Labour Governments always prioritise the poor but do not get elected if they say that is what they are going to do. The 1997 Labour landslide came about not because of policy so much as a weariness with a calamitous, sleaze-ridden government that had run out of ideas. We're due a reset.

With the Tories having moved to the right since Brexit (damn me, I mentioned it) the Labour Party are campaigning in the centre. You will have noted that this has led to the purging of some of the lefter left. And also that a number of Tories are able to say 'This is my party now'.

In 2010 David Cameron tried to sell the idea that his branch of Conservatism was a big ship and we should all serve each other in a big society. It didn't catch on because a time of austerity is not when people feel most charitable. Would it have worked given longer? We'll never know because of Brexit (oops I did it again) which gave us two societies massively divided and we're only just recovering.

The accusation that Labour are short of policy commitment and costings will continue to be partly true until the manifesto. But a vision of recruiting a broad spectrum of the centre and centre-left to govern the country for 5-15 years (goodness me we might do vision and planning) might be unfolding.

Starmer isn't charismatic. But he has a track record of fixing things, steadily and in the right order. I'm optimistic for the first time since election night 2010.

Things Can Only Get 7

Since everybody else is, let's talk about Diane Abbott.

But first, let's review Angela Rayner's housing. This can now be filed under nothing-to-see-here with Starmer's Durham beer, despite the best efforts of the right wind, oops I mean wing, press to make it into a thing.

You have to admit that the Labour Party have more opposition than the folk on the benches opposite in the battle for the hearts and minds of the nation.

So, Diane Abbott. She has been an exceptional constituency MP and political operative. She has pioneered the way for black women in Parliament. But the role of Shadow Home Secretary was a step too far and she never mastered the brief, looking flustered when interviewed. The picture of her drinking an M and S Mojito on an underground train was not exactly partygate but a steadier pair of hands might have noticed the rules. The role of Home Secretary needs great political skill, command of a complex brief and a clear mind that can prioritise emergencies. Insert punchline here. Or a list of names of people who made our country cruel again.

I think Abbott has been treated harshly but she made a silly error, ironically, posting inappropriately about anti-Semitism at a time when Starmer was trying to present the Labour Party in a new light post Corbyn. She apologised and did the training. If she now stands down it should be gracefully and with thanks for her service.

I see Farage is on Question Time this week for a change. I find myself asking 'Who is this man?' more often than the crowds following Jesus. I don't want to file the BBC under right wing press but they test my patience. Anyway I never watch Question Time it being the worst sort of politics, all angry emotion and no useful facts. The thought of Farage head-banging another pointless remark at the camera is too much.

We're going to get some leadership debates. Excellent.

Things Can Only Get 6

Our local Labour candidate has stuck his toe in the water of social media. His official page hasn't got too many comments. Maybe it's because you have to 'like' it to join in.

But our local community group, an angry mob who can't be bothered to leave the sofa, noted that the village had a visit from a Labour candidate for the first time almost ever.

One of the reasons for this is that the village is now part of the Redditch constituency which normally swings to the majority. Voters in mid-Worcestershire are through and through blue and people with left-of-centre views have, in the past, been tempted to stay at home. So it's now worth visiting.

I've been working my way though the comments (to save you having to).

Now many of them are a bit crude. In response to the suggestion that politicians are all the same, someone said:

'There hasn't been a politician with balls since Thatcher.'

This led to the inevitable unappealing exchange of the sort divisive politicians find in their wake.

But there is some learning to be had:

1. Reform are generating a lot on interest, probably from dissatisfied Conservative populists. They will steal more Tory votes than Labour.

2. A fair few folk have not registered or understood the boundary changes.

3. Far too many people find the questions of policy too difficult so, as Daniel Kahneman explained in Thinking Fast and Slow, they replace that with an easier question - Who do I like? Then they vote based on the answer to that question.

4. Nobody mentions the candidate by name. Local candidates can look and dress almost any way they wish. It's their leader the voters need to like. Sad but true.

Things Can Only Get 5

Following yesterday's announcement about a Conservative pledge to bring back national service, today we learned that this came as a surprise to all but a few of Rishi's inner sanctum. No less a figure than Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker said this, apparently from a Greek beach. Tough job this campaigning.

From another source we learned that Rishi was about to face a vote of no confidence so he called a General Election to cut this off. No idea if this is the case but the narrative fits the facts. Or should that be the facts fit that narrative?

I don't have any special knowledge but I do know that it has been a calamitous start to the Tory campaign, Amazingly 20% of voters will still prefer them, possible a figure that would continue to hold even if the candidate was a convicted serial killer with a blue rosette.

Our village has been added to the bellwether constituency of Redditch so our votes mean something. They haven't in the past, this is blue-rosetted serial killer territory. He's called Nigel. We were visited by our local Labour campaign team today. They mobilised quickly. We were impressed by some well produced campaign literature and a good doorstep chat.

The rough and tumble of the campaign trail is mainly about photo opportunities, sound bites and gaff-free behaviour. I wonder what the next few weeks will bring?