People are easily influenced in a crowd. If you ask a question of 20 people such as ‘What is 9 x 7’ and rig the room so 19 of the 20 say the answer is 57, the 20th person will usually bow to the pressure and also give the wrong answer.
So if you hold a referendum on a big issue some ‘big hitters’, such as the Russians, become hugely influential.
But what if people don’t get to talk to each other? The wisdom of crowds theory says that if you ask a question and people have not consulted with each other, or been influenced, then an average of all the responses will be close to the truth.
How might this work? Well, suppose it be put in the gift of a Prime Minister, after three year’s in office, to hold a blind referendum? Three questions can be put to the voting public in an advisory referendum, to test feeling.
The voting public would not see the questions until arriving at the ballot box. Obviously it would be hard to avoid all leaks and equally hard to stop parties briefing out the answers to all possible questions. Maybe it could be done electronically? In an internet age it is amazing we still have polling booths. Questions should have yes/no/don’t know choices only.
So, in 2027:
Would you favour commencing conversations about rejoining the EU?
Would you wish to take the railways back into public ownership?
Should wearing black and gold in public be a sectionable offence? (Oh come on. Allow me one joke.)
The ‘flavour’ of the answers would help a government to understand more about the future reaction to things they wanted to do.
So if you hold a referendum on a big issue some ‘big hitters’, such as the Russians, become hugely influential.
But what if people don’t get to talk to each other? The wisdom of crowds theory says that if you ask a question and people have not consulted with each other, or been influenced, then an average of all the responses will be close to the truth.
How might this work? Well, suppose it be put in the gift of a Prime Minister, after three year’s in office, to hold a blind referendum? Three questions can be put to the voting public in an advisory referendum, to test feeling.
The voting public would not see the questions until arriving at the ballot box. Obviously it would be hard to avoid all leaks and equally hard to stop parties briefing out the answers to all possible questions. Maybe it could be done electronically? In an internet age it is amazing we still have polling booths. Questions should have yes/no/don’t know choices only.
So, in 2027:
Would you favour commencing conversations about rejoining the EU?
Would you wish to take the railways back into public ownership?
Should wearing black and gold in public be a sectionable offence? (Oh come on. Allow me one joke.)
The ‘flavour’ of the answers would help a government to understand more about the future reaction to things they wanted to do.
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