As a minor league statto I love opinion polls. For the last few months nothing either main party has done has made any difference. Labour are 18-22 points ahead. People are fed up with the present government and want a change.
I have only ever been polled once—it was about whether Leamington Spa needed another supermarket so not exactly edgy.
It is remarkable how pollsters use the wisdom of crowds. Look at the bottom of any current poll and you will find the best ones, the most reliable ones, ask about 2000 people the same questions. As long as those asked are a good range of age, gender, social background and geography you can extrapolate an election result. The BBC poll revealed at 10.00 p.m. on election night is the result of asking ten times more people how they voted. It is usually pretty accurate.
Sir John Curtice is the political science academic who, with great energy for a 70 year old, explains what the figures mean and if there is any flexibility possible in interpreting them.
The main unfairness polls always show up is how 10% of the votes for a minor party can give them maybe one seat if they are lucky (Reform, Green), whereas every 10% the main parties get can convert to 75-100 seats. There is no point in getting 10% in every seat. Better to get 40% in a few.
This is a strong argument for a fairer voting system.
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