From the Particular to the General

There is an easy way to score points in a debate. It's lazy, almost corrupt, and easily contradicted, but in the emotion of the moment the argument will have got traction before the refutation has its trousers on. The particular gripe I have this afternoon is people arguing from the particular to the general. I was prompted to write this by the especially loathsome Robert Jenrick MP, who recently resigned as Immigration Minister because we aren't prosecuting our new laws on illegal immigration fast enough.

Now I don't think Jenrick is ignorant in what he is doing but let's start there. He argued that the presence of anti-semites on a peace-in-Palestine march demonstrated that the integration of immigrants and asylum seekers in this country had failed.

I will write this next bit slowly.

When violent crime is reducing people still get mugged.

When worldwide conflicts are at the lowest in modern history there are still wars.

Fatal road accidents are rare now but people still die in them.

It follows that, even though we had (it is currently massively under-resourced) a hugely successful system in the UK for welcoming and integrating immigrants and asylum seekers, some choose not to integrate. In extreme cases a very few dangerous people sneak through the system. 

And what percentage of immigrants arrive in this country on small boats? To be a government priority it would have to be massive you'd have thought. But currently it is 22,000 out of a total of 1.2 million. Less than 2%.

If Jenrick doesn't know this he needs educating, fast.

If Jenrick does know this he is deliberately waving a blue rag at his ever-decreasing support.

Back in 2016, when we didn't think there would ever be a President Trump,  I overheard a debate from Illinois which went something like this:

Republican: Of course people are very concerned about rising crime figures.

Democrat: Actually crime has been falling every year for the last eight during Obama's presidency.

Republican: Not in Chicago it isn't.

Democrat: (well briefed) Actually there has been a slight increase in violent crime recently in Chicago but the overall crime figures are still down.

Republican: People don't feel the figures are down.

And there you have it. The scandal of particularity incarnate. Some people don't feel those facts are true therefore they are false.

The great challenge of our time is that a political debate which used to be about hearts and minds is now almost entirely about hearts. It's not about what you know but how you feel. I hate that. I am not equipped to argue with people who need a change of heart but won't listen to reason. Robert Jenrick wants you to feel bad about immigration. I don't think he cares how he does it but I don't think he's ignorant. If you believe him you are having your heartstrings tugged in the wrong direction. Expect a twang sooner or later.